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A novel assessment approach based on group evidential reasoning and risk attitude
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2023 | Group Decision and Negotiation | Citations: 0
Authors: Zheng, Chaoyu; Peng, Benhong; Zhao, Xuan; Wan, Anxia; Yue, Mu

Abstract: In the multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) analysis, besides the weigh ... Expand

Abstract: In the multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) analysis, besides the weight of the expert, reliability is another important concept bound up with experts despite it receiving little attention. In addition, the risk attitude of decision-makers is particularly important to decision-making. Considering these two important factors simultaneously, the uncertain evidential reasoning (ER) MAGDM approach based on expert reliability and risk attitude is proposed. In this approach, the best worst method (BWM) is used to determine each attribute weight. The expert reliability is determined by integrating similarity measures between the assessments provided before and after group analysis and discussion (GAD) and optimizing the drawbacks of the reliability model of the original interval-value under global ignorance. The prospect function of assessment grades is introduced to rank alternatives by considering the risk attitude of decision-makers. Taking the risk assessment of public health emergencies as an example, the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed methods are analyzed. Collapse

Semantic filters: expected utility theory

Topics: decision making pandemic fuzzy logic

Methods: sensitivity analysis optimization model experiment computational algorithm cross sectional research

Theories: expected utility theory prospect theory
Gamblified digital product offerings: an experimental study of loot box menu designs
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2022 | Electronic Markets | Citations: 0
Authors: Adam, Martin; Roethke, Konstantin; Benlian, Alexander

Abstract: To augment traditional monetization strategies, digital platform providers incre ... Expand

Abstract: To augment traditional monetization strategies, digital platform providers increasingly draw on gamblification (i.e., the use of gambling design elements). By means of gambling design elements (e.g., lottery tickets, scratch cards, loot boxes), platform providers do not only entertain users but also incentivize them to purchase digital products. Yet, despite the increasing prevalence of gamblified digital platforms, little is known about how gamblification influences user purchase behaviors. Drawing on prospect theory, we investigate gamblification in the form of loot box menu designs and the associated effects of uncertainty, loss experience and behavioral control on user purchase behavior. Specifically, we conducted a contest-based online experiment with 159 participants, finding that platform providers can profit from offering loot boxes with certain (vs. uncertain) rewards in loot box menus. Furthermore, this effect intensifies when participants previously experienced a loss and decreases when they perceive to have more control over the result. Thus, our findings provide theoretical and practical insights for a better understanding of gamblification in general and of loot box menu designs for enhancing digital business models in particular. Collapse

Semantic filters: expected utility theory

Topics: loot box digital business model digital product gamification decision making

Methods: experiment survey design survey logistic regression factorial experiment

Theories: prospect theory expected utility theory
Designing a Risk Assessment Tool for Artificial Intelligence Systems
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2021 | DESRIST | Citations: 1
Authors: Nagbøl, Per Rådberg; Müller, Oliver; Krancher, Oliver

Abstract: Notwithstanding its potential benefits, organizational AI use can lead to uninte ... Expand

Abstract: Notwithstanding its potential benefits, organizational AI use can lead to unintended consequences like opaque decision-making processes or biased decisions. Hence, a key challenge for organizations these days is to implement procedures that can be used to assess and mitigate the risks of organizational AI use. Although public awareness of AI-related risks is growing, the extant literature provides limited guidance to organizations on how to assess and manage AI risks. Against this background, we conducted an Action Design Research project in collaboration with a government agency with a pioneering AI practice to iteratively build, implement, and evaluate the Artificial Intelligence Risk Assessment (AIRA) tool. Besides the theory-ingrained and empirically evaluated AIRA tool, our key contribution is a set of five design principles for instantiating further instances of this class of artifacts. In comparison to existing AI risk assessment tools, our work emphasizes communication between stakeholders of diverse expertise, estimating the expected real-world positive and negative consequences of AI use, and incorporating performance metrics beyond predictive accuracy, including thus assessments of privacy, fairness, and interpretability. Collapse

Semantic filters: expected utility theory

Topics: artificial intelligence risk management robotic explainable artificial intelligence legal context

Methods: design principle design science action design research machine learning design artifact

Theories: expected utility theory management theory
The Impact of Overconfidence and Ambiguity Attitude on Market Entry
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2020 | Organization Science | Citations: 0
Authors: Gutierrez, Cédric; Åstebro, Thomas; Obloj, Tomasz

Abstract: We study the behavioral drivers of market entry. An experiment allows us to dise ... Expand

Abstract: We study the behavioral drivers of market entry. An experiment allows us to disentangle the impact on entry across different types of markets of two key behavioral mechanisms: overconfidence and attitude toward ambiguity. We theorize and show that the causal effect of overconfidence on entry is limited to skill-based markets and does not appear in those that are chance based. Moreover, we also find that, independent of confidence levels, individuals exhibit ambiguity-seeking behavior when the result of the competition depends on their skills, which, in turn, leads to higher levels of entry. This preference for ambiguity thus can explain results that have previously been attributed to overconfidence. Our results challenge existing literature that has inferred overconfidence from differential entry levels across types of markets. Collapse

Semantic filters: expected utility theory

Topics: decision making entrepreneurship personality research and development

Methods: experimental group parametric test experiment ANOVA experimental design

Theories: expected utility theory
Group Decision Making with Affective Features
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2020 | Group Decision and Negotiation | Citations: 0
Authors: Liu, Si; Ríos Insua, David

Abstract: Affective elements have been shown to have impact on how individuals and groups ... Expand

Abstract: Affective elements have been shown to have impact on how individuals and groups make decisions. In this paper, we consider how emotions and mood impact the degree of competitiveness and cooperativeness in groups. We provide a parametric model to regulate its evolution and introduce a negotiation scheme to facilitate group formation, depending on such affective elements. We simulate a virtual platform for the proposed model and conduct experiments showing that our proposal is effective: agents which cooperate affectively with others through negotiation tend to attain higher utilities and outperform non-cooperative and/or emotionless agents. Collapse

Semantic filters: expected utility theory

Topics: decision making personality

Methods: simulation experiment statistical hypothesis test longitudinal research longitudinal survey

Theories: expected utility theory
Robust influence modeling under structural and parametric uncertainty: An Afghan counternarcotics use case
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2020 | Decision Support Systems | Citations: 0
Authors: Caballero, William N.; Lunday, Brian J.

Abstract: An entity often seeks to influence the decisions of others in a system. This dyn ... Expand

Abstract: An entity often seeks to influence the decisions of others in a system. This dynamic is apparent in a variety of settings including criminal justice, environmental regulation, and marketing applications. However, the central task of the influencing entity is confounded by uncertainty regarding their understanding of the structure and/or parameters of the decisions being made. The research herein sets forth a decision support methodology to identify robust influence strategies under such uncertain conditions. Furthermore, the utility of this framework and its proper parameterization are illustrated via an application to the contemporary, global problem of the Afghan opium trade. Utilizing open source data, we demonstrate how counternarcotic policy can be informed using a quantitative analysis that embraces both the bounded rationality of the economy's decisionmakers and the government's uncertainty regarding the degree of their deviation from perfect rationality. In this manner, we provide a new framework with which robust influence decisions can be identified under realistic information conditions, and we discuss how it can be used to inform real-world policy. Collapse

Semantic filters: expected utility theory

Topics: open source decision support system decision support decision making

Methods: case study decision tree classification computational algorithm experimental design cluster analysis

Theories: theory of bounded rationality game theory expected utility theory behavioral economics decision theory
Loot Box Purchase Decisions in Digital Business Models: The Role of Certainty and Loss Experience

2020 | HICSS | Citations: 1
Authors: Roethke, Konstantin; Adam, Martin; Benlian, Alexander

Abstract: Game providers are increasingly employing and selling loot boxes, which can be c ... Expand

Abstract: Game providers are increasingly employing and selling loot boxes, which can be considered virtual goods that consist of further virtual goods on a randomized basis. As such, game providers can foster profitability without impeding user experience. Drawing on prospect theory, we investigate ideas for the design of loot box menus to optimize revenue generation and user well-being. By conducting a contest-based online experiment with 159 participants, our analyses reveal that including certain (vs. uncertain) content in loot boxes can influence users’ purchase behaviors and thus increase revenues. Moreover, this effect increases when participants previously experienced a loss. Thus, our findings demonstrate that game providers can profit from offering certain content in loot boxes. Collapse

Semantic filters: expected utility theory

Topics: loot box business model decision making social media electronic commerce

Methods: experiment survey logistic regression statistical hypothesis test descriptive statistic

Theories: prospect theory behavioral economics expected utility theory
Explaining Digital Piracy: A Meta-Analysis
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2019 | Information Systems Research | Citations: 0
Authors: Eisend, Martin

Abstract: Many studies have investigated why users engage in digital piracy. The theoretic ... Expand

Abstract: Many studies have investigated why users engage in digital piracy. The theoretical explanations are particularistic, and the empirical ﬁndings are fragmented, sometimes divergent, and reveal unexplained variations of effects. Managers and academics have thus had little guidance on how to explain and combat digital piracy. To help ﬁll this gap, the present meta-analysis synthesizes past research on digital piracy and accumulates 1,373 effect sizes from 174 studies collected in 36 countries. The meta-analysis identiﬁes the key drivers of users’ engagement in digital piracy and tests a new, comprehensive model that integrates all prior theoretical perspectives—social inﬂuence and control, outcome evaluation, dilemma solving, and reinforcement. The model explains 42%–53% of the variance in digital piracy attitudes, intentions, and behaviors and identiﬁes the reinforcement perspective as the strongest theory. A moderator analysis shows that the inﬂuence of key drivers varies with cultural dimensions linked to the theoretical perspectives—individualism moderates social inﬂuence and control variables, masculinity moderates dilemma-solving variables, and uncertainty avoidance moderates reinforcement variables. These ﬁndings provide guidance for future digital piracy research and also have managerial implications in terms of possible revisions to antipiracy measures. Collapse

Semantic filters: expected utility theory

Topics: digital piracy social influence cross cultural research database system internet technology

Methods: meta analysis regression analysis method hierarchical linear modeling theory development literature study

Theories: cultural dimensions theory expected utility theory theory of planned behavior organizational behavior theory
Enterprise security investment through time when facing different types of vulnerabilities
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2019 | Information Systems Frontiers | Citations: 3
Authors: Miaoui, Yosra; Boudriga, Noureddine

Abstract: We propose in this work to use the utility theory to compute the optimal securit ... Expand

Abstract: We propose in this work to use the utility theory to compute the optimal security investment over an investment horizon, considering the typologies and dynamic aspects of vulnerabilities related to the assets of a firm. A regression over a 17-year statistics available in the National Vulnerability Database is performed to predict and forecast the evolution of vulnerabilities’ rates over the investment horizon. Techniques and methodologies are proposed to compute and plan investment tranches over the whole time-horizon, while coping with budget constraints. An analysis is conducted to assess the variation of the optimal investments and the residual risk, taking into account the attitude of decision-makers towards risk. The obtained results show that : a) the optimal amount of investment in information security necessary to counter located attacks increases with the investment horizon for all types of vulnerabilities, but such an increase highly depends on the type of vulnerabilities affecting the firm; b) differently to located attacks, the optimal amount of investment in information security necessary to counter distributed attacks does not always increase with the investment horizon; and c) the optimal amount to invest in security, and the optimum value of the residual risk depend on the decision-maker attitude towards security risk. Collapse

Semantic filters: expected utility theory

Topics: logistics management IT security threat database system artificial intelligence SQL injection

Methods: computational algorithm game theoretical model regression analysis method survey parametric test

Theories: utility theory expected utility theory decision theory
Intent and the Use of Wearables in the Workplace – A Model Development

2019 | International Conference on Business Informatics | Citations: 0
Authors: Oesterle, Severin; Trübenbach, Bianca; Buck, Christoph

Abstract: Due to reasons like demographic changes and variations in the spectrum of illnes ... Expand

Abstract: Due to reasons like demographic changes and variations in the spectrum of illness, worldwide expenditures in the health market have exploded. Contemporary information systems are evolving rapidly in the field of ubiquitous computing and nowadays support health in various fields. Wearables and tracking technologies have emerged in private life for health and fitness support. This adoption reveals future possibilities for innovating the health-supporting systems in the workplace. The crucial point of introducing wearables in the occupational health management system is the acceptance of employees. This paper provides a literature-driven measurement model to explain the behavioral intention to use wearables in the occupational health management system. The model provided is supported by 17 hypothesized relationships between relevant constructs and validated by card-sorting. Collapse

Semantic filters: expected utility theory

Topics: smart wearable device mobile system behavioral intention usage intention spreadsheet

Methods: card sorting structural equation modeling survey design survey structured literature research

Theories: health belief model unified theory of acceptance and use of technology expected utility theory protection motivation theory theory of reasoned action

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Found 29 articles

A novel assessment approach based on group evidential reasoning and risk attitude

Gamblified digital product offerings: an experimental study of loot box menu designs

Designing a Risk Assessment Tool for Artificial Intelligence Systems

The Impact of Overconfidence and Ambiguity Attitude on Market Entry

Group Decision Making with Affective Features

Robust influence modeling under structural and parametric uncertainty: An Afghan counternarcotics use case

Loot Box Purchase Decisions in Digital Business Models: The Role of Certainty and Loss Experience

Explaining Digital Piracy: A Meta-Analysis

Enterprise security investment through time when facing different types of vulnerabilities

Intent and the Use of Wearables in the Workplace – A Model Development